The Market

It seems winter is coming early for home sales. October started out with a bit of a rush but has settled into a bit of a slumber as the month winds down.

Generally,  it seems buyers are reluctant to take the plunge until there's more certainty about the economy. 

It all comes down to first- and second-time buyers. The housing market is like dominoes - a first-time buyer purchasing a condo allows the condo owner to move up to a townhouse. Both still need mortgages. And on and on up the chain it goes, eventually to the seller who no longer needs a mortgage to purchase. This is the type of buyer we often see in the Okanagan - many of them are now waiting for their homes to sell in order to buy, whether they already live here and plan to downsize or whether they're coming here from other areas..

So the next three to four months are setting up to be a consequential indicator of what the future may be for sellers and buyers. Seemingly at a snail's pace the federal government and provinces are moving toward strengthening intra-provincial trade and solidifying trade connections with other countries while navigating through the demands of Donald Trump. 

This 'holding pattern' may persist until there's more clarity about the economy. With renegotiation of the North American free-trade agreement on the horizon, it may yet be a while before a robust housing market returns. 

In the South Okanagan it seemed every 10 years the housing market hit a peak then would start to gradually slide. It happened in 1988/89, then nine years later in 1997/98, again in 2007/08 and yet again in 2017/18. It was like clockwork.

As happened throughout the world, people flooded out of large cities to smaller communities, upending predictable market cycles and accelerating market values. Subsequent high interest rates cooled that surge but, as rates come back down, the market in the South Okanagan has been responding. 

Now that the threat of the United States imposing tariffs is coming to fruition, and job security becomes front and center for many Canadians, the anticipation is market activity will slow or even pause. A further drop in interest rates may offset that but only time will tell. 

Buying? Take advantage of a luxury of choice. 

Selling? Acknowledge that the market has shifted and be competitive about your pricing. Or wait for a better market.